It’s that time of year again – the Tour de France is inching ever closer, and excitement is building for the biggest cycling event of the year.
Of course, much of the pre-race discussion has been about the fate of the yellow jersey. It promises to be another attacking, aggressive and high-quality showdown, as the same star names who competed last year return to headline once again.
But one of the beautiful things about the Tour is the many subplots that also contribute to the narrative of the race. Every stage has drama, every team has ambitions, and every classification is hotly fought for, in a way that no other race can match.
Let’s stick our neck out and predict who we think the standout riders of this year’s race will be.
Yellow jersey winner
The exact same quartet that attracted so much hype this time last year will again line-up with their eye on the yellow jersey, only this time the contest between them is being deemed as much more one-sided. That’s because of everything Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) has achieved these past 12 months, soaring ahead of the rest as comfortably the best rider in the world, and exhibiting an air of invincibility that makes it hard to envision anyone — even those as strong as these opponents — defeating him.
Still, there are reasons to believe that the others might push him closer this time around. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) mercifully goes into this race with a clean bill of health, in stark contrast to his injury-compromised run-in to last year’s race. And though he was no match for Pogačar at the Critérium du Dauphiné, the Dane has said he’s confident that he can close the gap on the longer climbs and overall duration of the Tour de France, while it shouldn’t be forgotten how comprehensively he defeated him in both 2022 and 2023.
Pogačar goes into the Tour as the clear favourite
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) is another year older and another year wiser, and hopes to build on his third-place finish on debut last year and compete with the other two. Sure, he too was well off Pogačar’s pace at the Dauphiné; but that was also the case last year, when he actually finished lower in that race (seventh, compared with fourth this time) before peaking for the Tour. And though Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe) has barely been talked about, going under the radar having not raced since abandoning the Giro d’Italia, he did look as good as ever before crashes curtailed his race, and is notorious for bouncing back from setbacks.
All that said, it’d take a brave punter to bet against Pogačar from retaining his title — only this time, we’re anticipating a closer contest.
Best sprinter
The bunch sprints for this year’s Tour are beautifully poised. Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick–Step) has been the quickest in the world this year, registering 10 wins, and has unfinished business with the Tour, having only been selected to ride once in his whole career, and even then not as his team’s designated sprinter.
But while he’s probably the quickest in a pure sprint, many of the sprint stages are complicated by the addition of hills and tricky terrain. This is where Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) could use his superior climbing to gain an edge, as he attempts to make a splash on his debut, while these parcours also suit Biniam Girmay (Intermarché - Wanty) as he attempts to rediscover the form that saw him storm to three sprint wins last year.
Jasper Philipsen has been the leading Tour sprinter for the past two years
In terms of Tour pedigree, Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is still the man to beat. He might not have been as prolific as in recent seasons, but has the all-round talents to compete in multiple different sprint stages, and has enviable support with Kaden Groves being added to his lead-out alongside the incomparable Mathieu van der Poel; in contrast to Merlier, whose Soudal Quick–Step team will be balancing their support with Evenepoel’s GC bid. Despite the intense competition this year, he’s in the running for another haul comparable to his three stage wins from last year and four from 2023.
Best debutant
The debutant with the greatest hope of winning the most stages is Jonathan Milan, given the amount of sprint stages on offer, and the fact he’s already won four Giro stages from his two appearances there, and a total of six in all races this season.
His Lidl-Trek teammate Thibau Nys is also poised to make an impression. This will be his first Grand Tour of any kind, but the way he rode in the Ardennes Classics this spring (most notably fifth at Liège–Bastogne–Liège) and hoovered up wins last year (nine in total) indicates that the 22-year-old will be a threat on punchy stages — especially the many during the opening week.
Thibau Nys will be making his Grand Tour debut at the Tour
Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto) will also be at the Tour for the first time, having impressed in other races these past few years, though his recent form has been more underwhelming.
One name stands out above all the rest: Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe). The 24-year-old had already caught the eye with a second-place finish at Paris-Nice and fourth at Itzulia Basque Country, but really wowed at Critérium du Dauphiné, beating Evenepoel for the final spot on the podium behind Pogačar and Vingegaard. Repeating that feat over the three weeks of the Tour is a big ask, but it’ll be fascinating to see what he can achieve.
Breakaway specialists
Without either a GC rider or sprinter to protect, and with more UCI points to be earned, we can expect many attacks to come from XDS-Astana’s contingent, especially from climbers Harold Tejada and Clément Champoussin. Given their new aggressive outset, Ineos Grenadiers are likely to target breakaways more than they have in the past, and Filippo Ganna could, in particular, cause havoc if he makes that his main goal.
In terms of individuals, Pablo Castrillo (Movistar) made a name for himself as a canny breakaway rider at the Vuelta last year by winning two stages from; Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) should have freedom to ride for himself having done so well at the recent Tour de Suisse, where he won the opening stage and held the yellow jersey for four days; the signs from that race were that Julian Alaphilippe (Tudor Pro Cycling) is returning to something like his best form, and will want to animate the race at every opportunity; and the breakaway star from last year’s Tour, Jonas Abrahamsen (Uno-X), still hopes to compete despite fracturing his collarbone last week.
Carapaz will be entering the Tour after a successful Giro
Above all, we should look to EF Education-EasyPost’s lineup to really animate the breakaways. Having competed for GC at the Giro d’Italia, Richard Carapaz is likely to target stage wins here instead, and could really coming into his own during the final week mountains; Neilson Powless looks to be coming into some form ahead of the Tour with some aggressive rides at the Tour de Suisse; and nobody loves an attack more than Ben Healy.
Most successful team
After so much misfortune and so many injuries, it seems the tide has finally turned for Visma-Lease a Bike. Simon Yates’ triumph at the Giro d’Italia saw them win big again for the first time in a long while, and all their big names are looking good ahead of the Tour.
Leader Vingegaard can therefore call upon extraordinary support for his yellow jersey bid. As well as the usual suspects of Sepp Kuss (set to ride his fifth Tour after missing out last year) and a rejuvenated Wout van Aert fresh from playing such a key role at the Giro d’Italia, he’ll also have the very man Van Aert helped win pink, Simon Yates, at his disposal. And then there’s Matteo Jorgenson, a super-domestique even among super-domestiques as an elite rider on all terrain.
Visma will be one of the strongest all-round units at the Tour
Add to that the power of Victor Campanaerts, Tiesj Benoot and Eduardo Affini supply in the engine room, and this is a formidable line-up without any shortcomings. Even if they can’t prevent Pogačar from winning yellow, they’re likely to be the standout team.
Dutiful domestique
If the Tour does indeed pan out as expected, and Pogačar quickly emerges as the man to beat, it’ll be up to UAE Team Emirates to control the race and defend the yellow jersey. They’re more than well-equipped to do so, with a supremely strong line-up made up of riders who would be protected leaders at most other teams.
Of their enviable line-up of super-domestiques, João Almeida stands out as the best on paper, especially on the back of his overall victory and three stage wins at the Tour de Suisse. He’ll likely be one of the last men left in the group of favourites on the high mountain climbs, thus offering support for Pogačar when others will be isolated.
Tim Wellens has become one of Pogačar most valuable domestiques
But as we’ve seen from recent races, this team of A-listers can at times be dysfunctional, and not always cohere successfully towards a common goal. Just take the Giro d’Italia, where a catastrophic tactical mishap saw Isaac del Toro lose the pink jersey on the penultimate stage, or the opening stage of the Tour de Suisse where they nearly threw away the race for Almeida by allowing a dangerous breakaway group to gain time.
With that in mind, could Tim Wellens be their most valued domestique? Unlike Almeida, who will want a high GC finish for himself, he harbours no personal ambition, and will be the man to do much of the uncelebrated, often unnoticed hard grafting at the front of the race during the early kilometres of a stage. He was also climbing better than ever at the Dauphiné, and could be the man to propel Pogačar if / when he chooses to attack on punchy terrain.
