The Tour de France 2025 kicks off on Saturday in Lille, with all the biggest stars of the sport on the start line raring to go for cycling's biggest race and the fight for the ultimate prize of all: the coveted yellow jersey. This year's route promises another thrilling edition of La Grande Boucle, with a number of gruelling mountainous stages, some sprint opportunities, two individual time trials and several stages perfect for puncheurs.
Once again, eyes will be on the intriguing rivalry between last year's winner and current world road champion Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and the two-time yellow jersey winner Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), who are certainly the main Tour de France favourites, having won the past four editions between them. However, don't underestimate the other GC riders, including last year’s third-place finisher Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), five-time Grand Tour winner Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), and Pogačar's teammate João Almeida.
Here are the current favourites for the 2025 Tour de France as the bookmakers see it. We’ll keep this page updated as the odds change.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Tadej Pogačar - 9/20
Tadej Pogačar’s 2024 season was undeniably one of the greatest in cycling history. Not only did he win the Tour de France for a third time, but he completed a historic Grand Tour double with the Giro d’Italia, and then finished his season spectacularly with victory at the World Championships.
There are no signs that form has waned for the Slovenian in 2025; he has won six out of the nine races he started (plus a load of stages along the way) and has not finished lower than third all season.
Pogačar has continued the immense form he showed in 2025 (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
That form has seen him marked as the odds-on favourite to defend his Tour title, particularly given his closest rival Vingegaard, has not raced extensively this year. There was a potential question mark over Pogačar ahead of the Tour due to a relative lack of stage racing in the first part of the year, having only participated in the UAE Tour before a full run of Classics. His strong showing at the Dauphiné put those doubts to rest, though, cruising to victory against many of his Tour de France rivals and winning three stages along the way.
Jonas Vingegaard - 13/5
Given he has won the Tour twice already, and that he pushed Pogačar for some of last year’s race despite coming back from severe injuries, the odds here perhaps belie Vingegaard’s ability to compete with the world champion over the Tour’s terrain and duration.
The Dane has raced sparingly this year, having crashed out of Paris-Nice with concussion in March before spending a significant spell on the sidelines. It left his form a little unknown, but he was the only rider to finish anywhere close to Pogačar at the Dauphiné, gradually seeming to improve as the week went by.
Vingegaard has an outstanding record in Grand Tours (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Despite not being able to match Pogačar at the Dauphiné, history suggests Vingegaard could fare better at the Tour given his consistency at Grand Tours. Aside from his debut at the Vuelta a España (when he was working for Roglič as a domestique), he hasn’t finished lower than second in his five other Grand Tour appearances, so is deserving of odds so short.
Remco Evenepoel - 14/1
Evenepoel has been gradually building back from injury (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
There’s a fairly stark gap between the top two favourites and third in the list, even if it is former world champion Remco Evenepoel. The Belgian has himself admitted that his first task is to close the gap to Pogačar and Vingegaard, having finished over nine minutes down on winner Pogačar last year. His odds reflect that current chasm in stage racing prowess, and the bookies agree that it could be too soon for Evenepoel to challenge for the yellow jersey this year.
João Almeida - 25/1
Having only won one WorldTour stage race since 2021, João Almeida is clearly in some of his best ever form in 2025, winning three already this year at Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse. The Portuguese is unlikely to be given much freedom to chase his own ambitions by UAE Team Emirates-XRG at the Tour and will instead be charged with supporting Tadej Pogačar.
Almeida managed to finish fourth last year despite working for Pogačar (Photo: Billy Ceusters/ASO)
But as Adam Yates did two years ago when he helped his leader to second overall and finished third overall himself, there’s every chance Almeida could fight for the podium if he can stay amongst the GC contenders after doing his work for Pogačar. He did exactly that to finish fourth last year, but at almost 10 minutes down to Evenepoel, he would need a lot to go his way to bridge to the leading trio if they all remain in the race.
Primož Roglič - 33/1
There’s a sense that Primož Roglič’s chance at winning the Tour may have slipped by him after devastatingly losing out to Pogačar on the penultimate day in 2020, but the Slovenian returns for another shot at the yellow jersey in 2025. The 35-year-old’s palmarès has earned him his spot as fourth favourite here, as have some impressive performances this year, including at the Volta a Catalunya in March. But a disappointing Giro d’Italia has left question marks over Roglič’s ability to remain competitive with the best riders in Grand Tours, and he remains at fairly long odds to triumph in Paris in July.
Roglič will need to bounce back quickly from a disappointing Giro (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Florian Lipowitz - 50/1
A relatively unknown quantity in Grand Tours compared to the aforementioned riders, Florian Lipowitz has the opportunity to fly under the radar and score a career-best Grand Tour result. A seventh at the Vuelta last year is his only overall result to date, but he has shown good form in his racing so far this year, finishing second at Paris-Nice and fourth at Itzulia Basque Country. He followed that up with third overall behind Pogačar and Vingegaard and the Dauphiné, beating Evenepoel to the white jersey of best young rider, so he is in rising form.
Florian Lipowitz is largely untested at Grand Tour level (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
The 24-year-old German could potentially be made to put teammate Roglič’s chances ahead of his own, but likewise will be required to stay up high in GC in case his team leader drops out. A win at the Tour feels a colossal stretch at this point, but the bookies rate him as the best of the real outsiders.
Matteo Jorgenson - 70/1
Like Almeida, Jorgenson could ride himself into a decent GC position while supporting his Visma-Lease a Bike leader Jonas Vingegaard, as well as provide the team with a tactical card to play in the mountains. There’s no doubt the American will have to play second fiddle to Vingegaard, but an eighth place last year was a best ever Grand Tour result and demonstrated Jorgenson has the quality to compete over three weeks and claim a podium spot at the very least in the future.
Jorgenson could be a Grand Tour winner in the making (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Carlos Rodríguez - 175/1
Carlos Rodriguez shot into popular consciousness in 2023 when he raced away from Pogačar and Vingegaard on the descent of the Joux Plane to claim a thrilling stage victory in Morzine. Just 22, the Spaniard appeared to be set to start challenging for the podium in Grand Tours after finishing fifth at the Tour that year, albeit a distant 13 minutes behind winner Vingegaard.
Rodríguez has performed consistently in Grand Tours in his young career (Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Since then, the Ineos Grenadiers rider has remained consistent, even if somewhat anonymous in three-week racing. A seventh at last year's Tour and 10th in the Vuelta – in addition to his Grand Tour debut at the Vuelta in 2022, when he finished sixth – means Rodríguez has never finished outside the top-10 in a Grand Tour. Can he kick on to claim his first overall podium? The bookies think it's unlikely to happen amongst this field.
Matthias Skjelmose - 175/1
Lidl-Trek’s Matthias Skjelmose made no secret of his desire to try his first Grand Tour GC campaign at the Giro this year, but his team decided otherwise and will send him to the Tour. The Dane has proven his credentials in week-long stage races and one-day races, but whether he can fight for a top GC result at the Tour could go either way. A fifth at last year’s Vuelta was a level step up in Grand Tour racing, but given the field assembled for the Tour and sudden withdrawal from the Tour de Suisse in June, a podium seems like a real long shot, and the bookies agree.
Skjelmose is at long odds to top the Tour podium in Paris (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Other contenders
Another leftenant of Vingegaard, Sepp Kuss, is unlikely to have any aspirations on GC but is still ranked at 150/1, ahead of some riders who would love to be amongst the top 10, including Ben O’Connor (Jayco Alula), Felix Gall (Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale), and Enric Mas (Movistar), all at 200/1
Mas is yet to bring his Vuelta form to the Tour in his career (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Giro winner Simon Yates (Visma-Lease Bike) will be all-in to help Vingegaard, but has seen his odds shorten to 125/1 in recent days. His brother Adam is back riding the Tour too, but his 300/1 odds reflect his domestique role for Pogačar.
Santigo Buitrago and Lenny Martinez are both ranked at 300/1 for Bahrain Victorious, but they're likely to focus on stage wins rather than a GC campaign.
Former Tour winner Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) has been given a very outside shot at 300/1 in his final career Grand Tour.
Cover image by Zac Williams/SWpix.com
