Date: Friday, September 6, 2024
Distance: 173.5km
Start location: Logroño
Finish location: Alto de Moncalvillo
Start time: 13:15 CEST
Finish time (approx): 17:19 CEST
Following a couple of days spent riding over terrain better described as hilly rather than mountainous, stage 19 throws the riders back into serious climbing. The Alto de Moncalvillo will be the 2024 Vuelta a España's eighth summit finish, and also its penultimate one, as the GC race nears its conclusion. After this there is just one more (albeit especially difficult) mountain stage to come tomorrow, before the race comes to a close at the Madrid time trial.
Before the road goes uphill today, however, the riders can enjoy the landscape of La Rioja’s vineyards. One of the most popular and oldest wine regions in Spain, the picturesque vineyards that characterise the region will be the backdrop for much of the racing today. The tempranillo grape is the one that’s being grown most of all around here, known for the fruity, light tastes the red wines grown here have, while enthusiasts might want to pay a visit to the start town of Logroño, where many of the wineries used to age the local varieties (which mature especially well on oak barrels) are aged in underground cellars known as 'calados'.
Logroño was also the point of departure the only other time Alto de Moncalvillo featured at the Vuelta, back in 2020. This time the riders will head out further west into the province of Burgos before switching back on themselves towards the final climb, but the terrain is comparable. Like then, there will be only one climb tackled before the finale, and it’s not one to be overly concerned about, averaging a modest 4.8% for the duration of just 5.2km. Crested 70km before they start the final climb, it’s unlikely to have much of an impact.
This might not, therefore, be a full mountain stage of the kind that those monstrous days either side of the last rest day, but the Alto de Moncalvillo is alone enough to make it a potential turning point in the red jersey race. After a relatively gentle first 1.5km to ease them into the climb, the road ramps up to over 9%, and barely relents for the remaining 7km to the top, including one especially nasty ramp of 16%. In 2020, Primož Roglič and Richard Carapaz exchanged blows on these steep inclines, the latter pulling away from him in the final kilometre to win the stage, but the latter defending the red jersey (only temporarily, though; Roglič would ultimately end the race as overall victor). Behind, the race had been ripped to shreds, with all the other GC contenders arriving at the finish in ones and twos, with only six others finishing within 1:30 of Roglič. We could see something similarly selective today.
Stage profile sourced via Vuelta website
Contenders
With tomorrow's stage looking extremely difficult, it is difficult to say whether the stage victory will be fought by the general classification riders – they may want to save their legs for the concluding weekend that is coming up. However, we expect positions in the GC to move around and maybe even the red jersey changing hands. Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) sits only five seconds behind current leader Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale). Having conquered the steep slopes this climb boasts once before, he could make an attack and see himself move up into the pole position. O'Connor, while climbing well, hasn't been able to stick to Roglič's wheel when he's made one of his explosive attacks on double-digit gradients, so if the Australian wants to stay in red for a few more days until Madrid, he will have to bring a bit more fire to the slopes of the Alto de Moncalvillo.
We could also see a tightly contested battle between Enric Mas (Movistar) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), who are both fighting for a podium position at the end of the race on Sunday. Each have been in superb form, attacking on many of the summit finishes and could look to gain some time before the final mountain stage on Saturday.
Outside of the GC contenders, this stage could be suited to a rider like Jay Vine (UAE Team Emirates). He's currently leading in the King of the Mountains classification after Wout van Aert sadly abandoned the race following a crash. His teammate and stage 16 winner Marc Soler could take a second stage win here. He's been very active through this entire race and we don't expect he'll want to let another stage opportunity go amiss.
Another rider who has animated this race in search of a stage win has been Max Poole (Team DSM-Fermenich PostNL). So far, he's secured a second place and two third-place finishes, but will desperately want to add a stage victory to that. Mauro Schmid (Jayco Alula), Ion Izagirre (Cofidis) and Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech) could also be in with a chance of stage victory if they can get into the break and gain enough time over the peloton.
Two riders already happy with the results of their Vuelta are Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma) and Eddie Dunbar (Jayco Alula). Both may have a stage win to their name – Castrillo, two – but if the chance for a stage win prevails, they are riders who will suit this terrain and finishing climb.
Stage 19 winners prediction
We don't think Primož Roglič will leave the red jersey battle until the final mountain stage, so we expect the Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team to work hard throughout the stage until the Slovenian launches a winning attack on the final climb.
