Date: Wednesday, May 21
Distance: 186km
Start location: Viareggio
Finish location: Castelnovo ne' Monti
Start time: 12:05 CEST
Finish time: 17:14 CEST (approx.)
Not only is the Alpe San Pellegrino the hardest mountain the riders will have faced so far at this Giro, it’s arguably (with the exception of the Colle delle Finestre awaiting them on the penultimate day) the hardest of the entire race. Upon leaving the start at the Ligurian Sea coastal town of Viareggio, known for its annual carnival featuring massive papier-mâché floats, the peloton will head back inland towards the Apennines for one final time, ascending to the summit of San Pellegrino, home to the highest inhabited village in the mountain range.
The climb ramps up to double digits after just 1km, and doesn’t get any easier from there, averaging about 9% for the next 8km. Then, after their brief respite of a few hundred metres downhill, the road tilts up to even steeper gradients, averaging over 12% for the following 3km prior to an easing off in the final kilometre, with one ramp reaching as much as 20%. The Giro hasn’t sent the riders up the Alpe San Pellegrino for 25 years, on which occasion it had a big impact on the GC race, as Francesco Casagrande rode up it at a ferocious pace to drop everyone by the top, going solo to take the stage win by over a minute and a half, and claim the pink jersey. He went on to hold the jersey for almost two whole weeks, only to succumb to Stefano Garzelli on the penultimate time trial stage of the race.
Casagrande made his move with about 30km still to ride, but if anybody is to attempt something similar today, they’ll have to commit from even further out. The climb is crested 92km from the finish, part of a pattern throughout this Giro of the hardest mountains being used much earlier in the stage than is commonplace. It’s almost as if the organisers are daring the GC contenders to be bold, to see if they’re willing to take big risks in the hope of gaining big rewards.
The smart money approach would appear to be to hold back and wait until later in the stage. The descent off the climb is long and shallow, not conducive territory to maintain a lead over a chasing peloton. And, though much of the day’s 3,850m of elevation gain is completed on Alpe San Pellegrino, there is still plenty of climbing to be done afterwards. First, the riders climb 11.1km to the top of Toano, at an average of 4.9%; then the steeper Pietra di Bismantova, after which there is just 5km left to ride to the finish at Castelnovo ne' Monti. Averaging 5.8% for 5.8km, it’s nowhere near as hard as Alpe San Pellegrino, but the riders are sure to be fatigued from that earlier effort, and so gaps between the GC contenders are likely.
Contenders
The flat start to stage 11 will make it a hard task for the lightweight climbers to make the day's break without a rouleur teammate to help, but conversely, the unforgiving gradients and length of the Alpe San Pellegrino mean that a heavier rider will struggle to get over the test in the front group. Therefore, for a breakaway rider to succeed, they will most likely need to be strong enough to get into the break in the first place and then be able to climb well.
Luke Plapp (Jayco Alula) has already won a breakaway stage at this Giro over a similar parcours to Wednesday's stage. One of the strongest riders at the race so far is Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), who for most of the race has been riding in the service of his teammates, for Mads Pedersen's stage wins and Giulio Ciccone's GC. If he were to get into the breakaway, he would undoubtedly be a threat to the other riders in the break, so he would be watched closely.
Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech) is destined to be a contender from a mountain stage breakaway at some point this Giro, but he may save himself for the Alps. Pello Bilbao (Bahrain-Victorious), Wout Poels (XDS Astana Team), Davide Formolo (Movistar Team), and Stefano Oldani (Cofidis) could feature after quiet starts to the Giro. Riders who have already been active, like Wilco Kelderman (Team Visma-Lease a Bike), Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team's duo of Nicolas Prodhomme and Andrea Vendrame, and Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost) will all be eyeing more breakaway action after some exploits at this Giro.
The stage also offers the chance for riders who have dropped far enough down on GC like former Grand Tour stage winners David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Nairo Quintana (Movistar Team), Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty), and Rafał Majka (UAE Team Emirates-XRG).
Breakaway specialists Marco Brenner (Tudor Pro Cycling Team) and Dries De Bondt (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale Team) could all make the day's break, especially considering the start is relatively flat. Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS Astana Team) will likely try and get into the breakaway to consolidate his lead in the mountains jersey and the all-important UCI points for Astana.
The team are in a direct fight to stay in the WorldTour as are Team Picnic PostNL, who already have a stage win at this Giro. Could it be the day their talisman Romain Bardet completes his Grand Tour stage set? With no early climb, it could be a challenge for the Frenchman to make the initial move, but if he got into it or bridged to it later, he would be a threat over this sort of terrain. His teammate Max Poole will want to regain some time on GC and could use stage 11 as a starting point.
It would be a bold move for a GC rider to try something on the Alpe San Pellegrino, but Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) and Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) have gone on long-range attacks in the past and could be tempted by stage 11's terrain. They may choose to wait later in the stage, by which point the break might have taken the spoils. Tom Pidcock (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team) is well suited for a stage like this, but at only 3:41 from the race lead, it's unlikely that he will be given the freedom to go up the road, so he will require the race to come back together to have a shot at victory.
Prediction
We think Tom Pidcock will grab his maiden Giro win on stage 11.
