Let’s not pretend otherwise: Wout van Aert has come to the Vuelta a España, his first-ever participation in the race, to win multiple stages. If things go his way, he could maybe even win more than a handful, matching or bettering Tadej Pogačar’s six victories that he picked up at the Giro d’Italia and Tour de France.
So while the Visma-Lease a Bike rider can be content to be in the race’s lead after the opening weekend in Portugal, and will almost certainly stay in red until at least Tuesday, he’ll most probably be reflecting on the first two days as missed opportunities to get his Vuelta win tally up and running, because after missing out on victory on the first day’s 12km time trial by 2.8 seconds, on stage two he went early on an uphill sprint and was beaten to the line by Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Kaden Groves.
There’s not necessarily any shame in losing to Groves – this, after all, was the Australian’s fifth career win at the Vuelta – but once again it was a case of what-if for Van Aert, a man who in spite of approaching half-a-century of road wins to go alongside all those dozens of cyclocross triumphs, is so frequently denied a victory that really ought to be his. Three times it happened at this summer’s Tour de France, and twice in the spring Classics before he broke his collarbone. It’s a trend that was set many years ago and has continued – his wins, as spectacular as they often are, typically dotting a results sheet that contains far more near-misses.
Since 2019, the year he joined his current employers and truly committed to the road, Van Aert has won nine Tour stages, a plethora of Classics, points jerseys, and GCs. In total, he’s won 39 races, finished second on 36 occasions, and been third 32 times. There are multiple ways of viewing such a statistic: 107 podiums in almost six seasons of racing, winning 36% of the time, is the mark of a grand champion. But we already knew that. Don’t forget, Van Aert has won time trial, sprint and mountain stages in the Tour de France, and in 2022, when resplendent in the Tour’s green jersey and leading Jonas Vingegaard up HC climbs, he was being described as the most complete male bike rider since his fellow Belgian, Eddy Merckx.
So it’s that supreme breadth of quality which makes his regular habit of failing to turn realistic and expected victory prospects into reality that makes it all the more infuriating for him and the watching public. Perhaps, then, a better comparison is not with Merckx but instead with Raymond Poulidor, ironically the grandfather of his greatest rival, Mathieu van der Poel. Poulidor, famously, was known as L’Éternel Second, and in this past decade at least, it’s Van Aert who has staked the biggest claim to taking on that unwanted title.
This Vuelta a España is devoid of most big names, and Van Aert could very possibly win stage after stage, while simultaneously aiding defending champion and his teammate, Sepp Kuss. In fact, he probably will – he’s got too much speed and power not to. But this being Van Aert, he’ll also probably continue to be pipped to the line, like he was on stage one and stage two.
He’ll be in the maillot rojo on stage three – a victory in itself that shouldn’t be sniffed at – and he’ll be hoping that, just like yellow did for him in the Tour two years ago, the leader’s jersey gives him wings, ends his win drought that stretches back to February (admittedly he was injured for two months), and begins his Vuelta win count. Because if it doesn’t, his Spanish odyssey will be judged a failure.
