The state of play going into the second week of the Vuelta a España would have felt very different had Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) not spontaneously chosen to detonate the race with an attack at the foot of the Valdezcaray, the final climb of the final stage of the opening week. Ahead of that stage, the GC rankings had been tightly packed together, with the race still appearing wide open, at least based on how small the time gaps were between the favourites.

But by attacking that day, Vingegaard confirmed what many expected, even if the standings hadn’t yet confirmed it — that the Dane is the clear frontrunner for the red jersey. He’s not in the jersey yet, as Torstein Træen (Bahrain-Victorious) still has 37 seconds left of the advantage he was afforded as part of the breakaway on stage six that saw him take the overall lead. But it now feels like only a matter of time until Vingegaard and his Visma-Lease a Bike team inherit it from him.

However, despite Vingegaard’s dominance on stage nine, the outcome of this Vuelta is far from a foregone conclusion. While his attack had echoes of the way Tadej Pogačar has attacked early in recent Grand Tours to seize control and effectively win the race early on, the results yesterday weren’t as devastating. Vingegaard and Visma-Lease a Bike’s ploy seemed modelled on that which UAE Team Emirates deployed on the Hautacam at this year’s Tour, Matteo Jorgenson in the Jhonatan Narváez role to accelerate 11km from the finish (as opposed to 12km out in UAE Team Emirates’ case) to set up his leader’s attack; but whereas Pogačar’s move ended up with him gaining minutes over all of his rivals, Vingegaard’s gains were far smaller. 

In particular, João Almeida remains uncomfortably close to Vingegaard on the GC, just 38 seconds adrift in third place overall. The UAE Team Emirates XRG rider was tipped to be the Dane’s main rival for the overall title going into the race, and indeed that is materialising. Having ridden steadily to finish safely in the group of favourites in all the previous mountain stages, yesterday was the day that he emerged as the main challenger, leading the chase behind Vingegaard and succeeding in dropping all the other contenders, save for Tom Pidcock (Q36.5). 

While Almeida will be disappointed at having lost time to Vingegaard, the 30 seconds he conceded might not mean too much in the grand scheme of things. And he can take heart in how powerfully he rode up the Valdezcaray. Rather than a lack of legs, Almeida seemed more taken by surprise by the move, failing to follow Visma’s initial burst of acceleration. We’re used to seeing Almeida ascend mountains at his own pace, happy to lose ground early on knowing he can make up ground later by grinding at a tempo more comfortable for him, and he used that same approach on Valdezcaray. While Vingegaard opened up a big initial gap, Almeida managed to contain it for the rest of the climb, then rode the final kilometre up it faster to close the gap. Encouragingly, he looks to have returned to the pre-Tour de France crash form that saw him achieve a hat-trick of stage race titles at the Tour de Suisse, Tour de Romandie and Itzulia Basque Country. 

Of more concern will be how little his UAE Team Emirates XRG line-up are cohering. Almeida lamented the lack of support he received on Valdezcaray, pointing out how “Nobody was with me in the end,” and suggesting that he might have been able to limit his losses more effectively if he had had a teammate to help pace him. 

Juan Ayuso, in particular, could be a great asset for Almeida in the mountains given the form he showed in winning stage seven, but sat up at the start of the Valdezcaray, as he has done on previous key GC points on this race. Such rides are fuelling the sense of discontent within the team, and a lack of harmony around the united goal of winning the red jersey. While UAE Team Emirates XRG can no longer use Ayuso in a co-leader role, he is still someone who can provide vital assistance to Almeida; either as someone to set a tempo for him on a climb, stick in the group of favourites and give in assistance while others are being isolated, or as a satellite rider to drop back from the breakaway. If Almeida is to give Vingegaard the best challenge he can mount in these coming two weeks, he’ll need his teammate on board. 

While Almeida remains the man Vingegaard must be most watchful of, he’s not the only potential rival. Tom Pidcock matched Almeida pound for pound on Valdezcaray, a ride that has suddenly announced himself as a genuine challenger for red; he’s now only 20 seconds further adrift on GC than Almeida, in third overall at 1:35. Excitingly, we don’t really know what Pidcock’s ceiling is, as he’s never before ridden this way for GC. But we do know that he is an exceptionally talented rider, talents that he now seems to be applying towards the longer, bigger mountains that determine Grand Tour winners rather than the small, punchier ones he has traditionally excelled at. He is the wildcard in the red jersey race, and must be taken seriously. 

There are bigger gaps to the rest of the field. Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) is in fifth place at 2:14, and is doing another solid Grand Tour in a similar manner to the ride that saw him place fifth at the Tour de France this year. The big test for him will be whether he can keep up this pace, or if the efforts of riding for GC at two successive Grand Tours will take its toll in the coming weeks. 

After a strong start, Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) betrayed his first sign of weakness at this Vuelta when he was dropped by Vingegaard on Valdezcaray, but is still up in sixth place overall, at 2:42. His eagerness to follow Vingegaard’s move, and even attack himself, suggests he has big ambitions for the GC; but can his legs back it up in the coming weeks?

Finally, there are a couple of Grand Tour winners further down the GC — Jai Hindley (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe) in ninth place at 2:53, and Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers) in eleventh place at 2:55. While neither are yet showing the form that saw them triumph at, respectively, the 2022 Giro, and the 2019 Tour and 2021 Giro, both have looked solid so far, and, as Grand Tour specialists, do tend to improve in the second and third weeks. With so much racing to come, and so many twists and turns that could transpire in the race for the red jersey, even they can’t be discounted from glory just yet.