Date: Sunday July 21, 2024
Distance: 33.7km ITT
Start location: Monaco
Finish location: Nice
Start time: 14:40 CET
Finish time (approx): 19:30 CET
The ancient Greeks who founded Nice named the settlement after Nike, the goddess of victory, and today it will determine definitely who shall be victorious in the 2024 Tour de France. Nice has for over a century lured visitors from over the continent, from Russian aristocrats in the 19th century, to European painters attracted by its soft seaside light, to English well-to-dos who inspired the name of the city’s famous Promenade des Anglais, as a place to seek pleasure and fortune, its notorious casinos promising riches to those who take a chance. Now, a similarly cosmopolitan Tour de France peloton will arrive in Nice having embarked upon three weeks chasing glory.
In a break from tradition, the victor of the yellow jersey won’t be known before this final stage in Nice. In fact, this will be the first time in Tour history that the race finishes outside of Paris, and rather than replicate the ceremonial stage around the Champs-Élysées, the organisers have designed an individual time trial to ensure the race will go down to the wire. It’s the first time since the famous duel between Greg LeMond and Laurent Fignon in 1989 that the Tour will end this way, and the hope is for at least some of the drama that made that Tour what many still recognise as the greatest of all time.
Although a departure from Tour tradition, the stage borrows instead from the history of one of the Tour’s sister races, Paris-Nice, by featuring the Col d'Èze that is so synonymous with the climactic stage of that race. Rather than stick to the flat Côte d'Azur coastline from the start location of Monaco to Nice, the route will instead head inland towards Col d'Èze summit via La Turbie. Most of the route will therefore be spent either climbing that 8km climb that precedes the short, steep kick to the Eze summit, or descending the technical downhill that follows it.
Such a parcours means this is not a time trial for the specialists. The benefits of a perfected time trial position will be mitigated, while climbing speed and descending technique will be crucial. As such, the times posted will likely be more a reflection of who is most fresh this deep into a Grand Tour rather than time trialling ability, so don’t put it past riders who usually dread time trials pulling off big surprises. And at 33.7km, this is a long time trial, and so there is plenty of scope for big time gaps. Following famous climactic time trial leadership changes like Greg LeMond over Laurent Fignon in 1989 and Tadej Pogačar over Primož Roglič in 2020, and the narrow yellow jersey defences of Carlos Sastre in 2008 and Alberto Contador in 2009, we could be in for another history-making finale.
Route profile sourced via ASO
Contenders
With the two climbs in the middle of this time trial course, this route isn’t designed for the pure TT specialists. However, there is one specialist – with a world champion title to confirm – that boasts excellent climbing legs and that is Remco Evenepoel (Soudal–Quick-Step). He won the last time trial in this race on stage seven, however, this course was flat. Nevertheless, Evenepoel’s climbing has only gotten better throughout this race, so he’ll be a real contender for the final stage.
In the last time trial, just 12 seconds behind Evenepeol, was Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) who goes into this stage in pole position. He is a strong time trialist and climber, the perfect blend for dominating a stage like this. Pogačar also has the benefit of this being his local roads living in Monaco, so would have had ample opportunity to recon this last stage, and we expect he will want to finish his incredible Tour de France wearing the yellow jersey and taking a stage win along the way.
Visma-Lease a Bike will hope for Jonas Vingegaard to take the stage, finishing their Tour on a high after not being able to defend the yellow jersey for a third-year running. Vingegaard was 37 seconds behind Evenepoel, coming fourth on stage seven, but he’ll suit the climbing aspect within this route and could aim for a better placing. The Dutch team also have Wout van Aert who is good against the clock on both flat and uphill terrain. But it will be questioned whether he is strong enough to beat the ITT world champion and Pogačar in the discipline over this kind of course.
Within UAE Team Emirates, João Almeida could be a strong contender for the stage win. He’s fourth on the GC, providing the team’s leader with superb support throughout the three weeks, and could be rewarded with a stage win if he is feeling good. Outside of the big top podium teams, Simon Yates (Jayco Alula) could be a contender for stage victory. As a climber, the terrain will suit him, and can have good results in the race against the clock. Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) could also be another ride for the stage win, though the fatigue of the Giro and the Tour appears to be catching up with him.
Stage 21 winner prediction
We think Tadej Pogačar will secure the final victory. He will be motivated by being on home roads and what better way to complete the Giro-Tour double than one last stage win in the world's biggest race.
