Rwanda is known as the land of a thousand hills, and the route for men’s World Championships road race lives up to that moniker. This will be a race of relentless climbing, with two punchy hills (Côte de Kimihurura, lasting 1.3km at 6.3%, and the imaginatively named Côte de Kigali Golf, 800m at 8.1%) featured in a circuit based round the capital Kigali 15 times. On top of that, they will also take an excursion midway into the 267.5km race to take on three more climbs, all adding to a total elevation gain of 5,475m.
This will therefore be a climber’s paradise, the winner of the rainbow jersey set to be a lighter mountain man. That’s reflected in the absence of some of the sport’s biggest Classics stars, notably Mathieu van der Poel, Mads Pedersen and Wout van Aert, all of whom have deemed the parcours too difficult and therefore not worth the long trip to sub-Saharan Africa.
Despite their absence, this is still, as every elite World Championships road race is, a stacked field; and perhaps a more open race than we might have predicted up until a few days ago.
Contenders
Tadej Pogačar
But for the first time in a long time he hasn’t had everything his own way recently. The Slovenian was humbled in the Worlds time trial at the weekend, not only missing out on a medal but enduring the embarrassment of being caught on the road by victor Remco Evenepoel. That extended his current run of race days without a win to eleven days (excluding the overall title at the Tour de France), which is a laughably short amount of time for any other rider, but for Pogačar is a longest winless run since July 2023. He’s still the favourite, but suddenly he does look beatable again.
Evenepoel caught Pogačar during the time trial on Sunday (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix)
Remco Evenepoel
He’s had a difficult year, which took a while to get going when injury delayed his start and suffered another setback when he abandoned the Tour de France, but Remco Evenepoel’s storming victory at Sunday’s time trial was thrilling confirmation that he’s back to his best. That victory not only underlines how great his form is right now, but also serves as a major confidence boost ahead of the road race, and his attempt to defeat Pogačar. Matching the Slovenian’s explosive accelerations will be a problem, but Evenepoel is perhaps the only rider with an engine comparable to him, and knows how to pace himself optimally, and will benefit from a strong Belgian line-up all riding for him.
Evenepoel has arrived at the World Championships in strong form (Image: Alex Whitehead/ SWpix.com)
Tom Pidcock
After spending last month battling in unfamiliar territory in the GC race at the Vuelta a España, Pidcock is back in more familiar territory in the punchy terrain of the World Championships. Despite being seemingly well-suited to this event, he’s only ridden it three times, and his sixth-place finish in 2021 is the only time he’s finished in the top 40. All his time spent climbing and defending third overall at the Vuelta might help him challenge if he can over that form, or hinder him if fatigued.
Tom Pidcock has a strong British team around him in Kigali (Image: Alex Whitehead/ SWpix.com)
Isaac del Toro
In what are the first ever African World Championships, might we have a first ever Central American rainbow jersey? As a 21-year-old who’s never before competed in the senior road race, the Mexican is certainly a wildcard candidate, but his recent form can’t be ignored - he’s won four out of the five one-day Classics he’s ridden since the start of the month. While the opposition in those races wasn’t the same level as what he’ll be up against on Sunday, and he’ll have a relatively weak line-up of domestiques to support him, fifth in the Worlds time trial against the best in the world was seriously impressive.
Del Toro had a breakthrough Giro d'Italia this year (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Ben Healy
Healy's Tour de France included a stage win and a spell in the yellow jersey (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Jay Vine
One of the in-form riders in the world, Jay Vine followed his two stage wins at the Vuelta a España with a blistering ride for silver medal at the Worlds time trial, a performance we’d all be raving about where it not for the even more impressive ride by Remco Evenepoel. He’s climbing brilliantly, and time trialing better than ever, but how will he perform on the punchy climbs of this Worlds route? He’s a bit of an unknown quantity in one-day races, never having targeted the Classics before, but as a rider he’s developing all the time and stretching his horizons, and could surprise us once again.
Vine enjoyed an excellent Vuelta, picking up two stages and the KOM jersey (Image: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)
Other contenders
Aside from Belgium, it’s the less traditional nations who have the favourites for this year’s race, but the European superpowers are still taking the Worlds very seriously. Italy have Giulio Ciccone to rally around, who has been one of the top performers in hilly one-day races these past twelve months; Spain want to bounce back from a disappointing Vuelta with Juan Ayuso as their leader; and France’s two-time champion Julian Alaphilippe proved that he can’t be discounted when he triumphed at the GP de Québec.
Alaphilippe won his second world title in 2021 (Image: Alex Whitehead/SWpix.com)
The climber-friendly course and high altitude brings the likes of former Olympic champion Richard Carapaz and his fellow South American Egan Bernal into contention, as well as Dutchman Thymen Arensman, Britain’s Oscar Onley, and, following a Vuelta in which he improved as it went along, Jai Hindley.
The route is less well suited to the likes of Michael Matthews, while Biniam Girmay is only really riding as the African continent’s star rider rather than as someone with a genuine hope of medalling. Quinn Simmons is another who would have preferred a gentler course, but third-place at the GP de Montreal shows he’s in great form.
Mattias Skjelmose merits a mention as one of the very select few riders to have gotten the better of Pogačar this season (at Amstel Gold); and don't forget about Primož Roglič, who could, depending on Slovenia’s tactics, find himself in an opportune breakaway.
Prediction
When Tadej Pogačar suffered his last setback, losing Amstel Gold back in spring, he bounced back with a vengeance a week later to win Liège-Bastogne-Liège by over a minute.
We expect him to deliver something similar in Kigali, on a selective route that even the flying Remco Evenepoel will find impossible to follow him on.
