Date: Wednesday, May 28
Distance: 155km
Start location: San Michele all'Adige
Finish location: Bormio
Start time: 12:50 CEST
Finish time: 17:12 CEST (approx.)
Lance Armstrong is not exactly a man famed for his honesty, but he might have been on to something when he described the Mortirolo Pass as the hardest mountain he ever climbed. Located in the Eastern Alps, its forested slopes are neither strikingly beautiful nor distinct, but it nevertheless quickly earned legendary status in the cycling world following its introduction in 1990, thanks to its ultra-steep gradients. And as with so many of the Giro d'Italia’s most iconic summits, Marco Pantani is responsible for first establishing its initial lore when, in 1994, defending champion Miguel Indurain was among the riders dropped as the then-24-year-old Pantani took off on the climb en route to a huge solo win. Since his tragic death in 2004, the summit of the climb has been known as Cima Pantani in his honour.
For its most recent Giro inclusions, the Mortirolo has been used earlier rather than later in stages, and so its impact has been neutered, with no significant attacks being made here in either 2024 or 2022. The last time it did have a significant impact was in 2019, when, on a rainy, misty day, Primož Roglič was dropped here by his GC rivals Vincenzo Nibali and eventual pink jersey winner Richard Carapaz. The Slovenian had already started to show signs of fatigue in the previous days, having been the GC frontrunner for much of the race prior, but the steep slopes of Mortirolo were where his pink jersey ambitions really unravelled, losing 1:22 and sliding to third overall. Similarly, in 2015, the climb dealt a huge blow to Fabio Aru’s ambitions, who was distanced here by his teammate Mikel Landa and their rival Alberto Contador, ultimately losing over two minutes. Contador, by contrast, overcame a puncture to secure the pink jersey that he would go on to win.
It’s difficult to envisage such decisive GC action taking place on the Mortirolo today. Though it will this time be the last major climb of the stage (with only a long but very gradual drag up to the category three Le Motte following it), the summit still comes a whole 48km from the finish. And the riders will climb it from its less fearsome Monno side, which averages 7.6% for 12.6km, and lacks the viciously steep ramps that make this climb so notorious.
That said, it’s still a very hard effort, and paired with the Passo del Tonale that precedes it (which, at 6% for 15.2km, is much harder than its category two status suggests) makes for a gruelling stage. Both climbs exceed 1,800 metres in altitude, which is higher than the riders have ventured at any point so far at the Giro, and the thin air up here can have an adverse effect on even the best climbers, potentially see their GC ambitions unravel. And for a reminder of how momentum at a Grand Tour can shift at any moment in the mountains, you need only look back to the last time a Giro stage finished in Bormio in 2017, when Tom Dumoulin had to clamber out of the pink jersey to take an emergency toilet stop, consequently losing minutes to his GC rivals. Bad luck or bad legs on the Mortirolo could lead to similarly large time losses today.
Contenders
The distance from the summit of the Mortirolo to the finish (and the fact that it is not climbed from its hardest side) may mean that stage 17 could be won from the breakaway. However, it is far from easy and a GC rider could lose a lot of time if they crack on its slopes.
Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates) remains in the maglia rosa despite signs of cracking on stage 16, but he will hope to keep fighting to hold onto the jersey. He has Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), a proven third-week performer showing some dangerous form as the Giro progresses, snapping at his back wheel. This stage looks tailor-made for a Carapaz raid. Likewise, other riders who are showing a keenness to light up the race include Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike), who is looking sharp and is within 30 seconds of Del Toro. Egan Bernal (Ineos Grenadiers), who is also showing signs of his old form, but perhaps the main contender to challenge the current podium is Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech) who is making massive gains on the GC.
After an Italian 1-2-3 on stage 16, the home nation's hopes are high for yet more success, and Damiano Caruso and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) are both well placed in the overall standings. Another Italian looking impressive is Giulio Pellizzari (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe), who moved up nine places on GC on stage 16 and is his squad's hope for success after Primož Roglič crashed out. Keep an eye too on Michael Storer (Tudor Pro Cycling), who has also lost some time, but his climbing ability is among the best in the field, and if the GC leaders hesitate, he could slip away.
But the Mortirolo doesn’t just shake up the GC, it could be the chance for breakaway specialists. If the main contenders mark each other too closely, a strong escape group could seize the day. Expect seasoned climbers like Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL), Wout Poels (XDS-Astana), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty), and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) to eye the early move.
Lorenzo Fortunato (XDS-Astana) is almost certain to go hunting KOM points but may think about taking it easier after finishing second on stage 16. Other key names who could light up the stage from a breakaway include Rémy Rochas (Groupama-FDJ), Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech), Edoardo Zambanini (Bahrain Victorious), Filippo Zana and Luke Plapp (Jayco-Alula), Jefferson Cepeda and Nairo Quintana (both Movistar), Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost), and Carlos Verona (Lidl-Trek), fresh off his stage 15 triumph on Sunday.
Prediction
We think Marco Frigo will take advantage of the terrain that suits a breakaway and claim Israel-Premier Tech's first stage of this Giro.
